FIRST TO SCORE:
MLB Baseball Analytics
First to Score is an MLB Baseball Analytics research project presented by Sparkline Sports, exploring how scoring first influences winning across more than 26,000 MLB games.
A NEW BOOK BY STEVE STRAUB
MLB Baseball Analytics:
How much
does scoring first really matter?
First to Score examines more than 26,000 Major League Baseball games across 11 seasons to answer one simple question- and uncover what the first run reveals about winning baseball.
Receive these bonuses when you sign up!
1. Current 2026 MLB Team records (road and home) when scoring first and winning.
2. Current 2026 Top 10 Starting Pitchers records when their team scores first and they win.
3. Â Final 2026 MLB regular season First Score and Win Game stats for Playoff teams.
4. Â Early notification when book is available.
Expected Publication - January 2027
THE CENTRAL THEME
67.7%
MLB FSWGâ„¢ percent (First Score Win Game) Â
across the 2022 - 2026 seasons.
From 2022 through 2026, league FSWGâ„¢ rates remained remarkably consistent. Â This book looks beyond the headline
number to ask when the advantage strengthens, what weakens
it, and what winning teams do after getting on the board first.
INSIDE THE BOOK
Three questions drive the research.
01
02
03
Why does the first run
matter?
When does the advantage
change?
How do winning teams
exploit first scores?
The psychology, momentum, and game context behind scoring first—and why strong FSWG™ performance repeatedly appears among playoff-caliber teams.
First to Score examines timing, home-field advantage, divisional games, extra
innings, and other situations where the value of scoring first can shift dramatically.
Starting pitching, bullpens, shutdowns, playoff baseball, and championship
team construction are viewed through the FSWGâ„¢ framework.
FIRST TO SCORE / MLB ANALYTICS RESEARCH
Built from games,Â
not anecdotes.
The analysis follows more than 26,000 MLB games across eleven seasons, looking at league-wide performance, team patterns, pitcher impact, divisional play, extra innings, playoffs, and championship teams.
THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE RESEARCH
The goal is not to predict a single game. Â It is to understand the recurring patterns that appear after one team scores first.
26,000+
MLB games analyzed
11Â
seasons in primary dataset
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Steve Straub, Author of First to Score.
The project began with a straightforward baseball question: Â if a team scores first, how often does that advantage hold - and what separates the teams that consistently convert to wins from the teams that do not. This book is presented by Sparkline Sports, which collects sports data and conducts research and analysis.
